Topic: The death of HD DVD?

[John Kelly]

I can't find any articles right now (all searches seem to lead to the press release from yesterday), but in the past they have said that HD DVD was rented more than Blu-Ray.

[willndmb]

woops my bad, its in the circuit city ad
"final standard profile" Panny bluray player

[John Kelly]

woops my bad, its in the circuit city ad
"final standard profile" Panny bluray player

Ah.  Looks like they're trying to go extra confusing now.  That player is 1.1 spec, which is what I guess they're calling "standard profile".  But it wont be able to update to 2.0 spec, which I think they'll refer to as "enhanced profile". 

Fun stuff figuring all that out.

Bottom line - if you want a player that is guaranteed to be fully compatible, buy a PS3.

[Myco]

A news report on the radio yesterday said that HD-DVD will die now. They said that Best Buy just signed on to recommend Blu-ray players to all of their customers. Circuit City is already doing the same. Combined this with the fact that four major Hollywood production studios have signed on to produce all future films in Blu-Ray format means that HD-DVD will go the way of Beta VCR tapes. At least this is what they said on the news report on WBZ newsradio in Boston yesterday.

[OFOTD]

Now I'm not trying to say that HD DVD is going to win, but anyone else think this is a complete non-story?  It doesn't say they're dropping HD DVD, only that they're going to recommend Blu-Ray products.  If you're already in there buying discs I'm not sure that matters...

The Netflix thing is MUCH worse news for HD DVD.  Although there are many HD DVD supporters that subscribe to Netflix just to rent HD movies.  I wonder how many customers they lose because of it (they've also reported that they've always rented more HD DVDs than Blu-Rays).  Bad news for HD DVD. 

What I want to know is, there are two studios who are contractually obligated to release exclusively in HD DVD format (and one more not under contract, but doing it anyway).  Are retailers just going to decide not to stock any of their movies period? 

Non-story?  No.  I think that the crux of the story is not that they won't stock HD-DVD but that they will not promote it at all. 

Say I walk into a Best Buy or similar and all I see is signs, posters and the like that say blu-ray.  Nothing with HD-DVD on them.   Unless i'm an Xbox 360 owner what would compel me to buy anything other than blu-ray.

These stores still stock some VHS tapes but do you ever see them being promoted anymore? 

The two studios that are still contractually obligated will soon fall.  Once the majority of retailers (BB, CC, Walmart, etc.) start putting their ad dollars and shelf space to Blu-Ray then those studios will have to start producing them.   They'll have no choice because then they're only market will be Xbox owners.  Speaking of which let's hope Microsoft will make the move on their updated 360 or next gen console.   

Doesn't matter which format is better or easier or whatever.  Luckily one has won out.  Didn't matter to me which as I don't have a 360 or PS3.  At least now I can move forward and start investigating which computer bluray burner I want as well as what home theater player i'd like.

[John Kelly]

You think Best Buy and other retailers will be promoting Blu-Ray?  You've got it backwards.  The studios and manufacturers will *PAY* the retailers for marketing space and for prime positions.  That's how it works. 

The only difference now is that Best Buy has said they will be "recommending" Blu-Ray.  That may or may not be a big deal, but most people will not be affected by what a blue shirt tells them they should do.  They either know what it is going in, or they'll buy the Blu-Ray player pushed on them by the blue shirt and think that all of their DVDs are magically high def now.

But the retailers do NO promoting of either format.  All of that is paid for by the studios and manufacturers. 

[OFOTD]

You think Best Buy and other retailers will be promoting Blu-Ray?  You've got it backwards.  The studios and manufacturers will *PAY* the retailers for marketing space and for prime positions.  That's how it works. 

Splitting hairs here John.  Doesn't matter to a consumer who is paying for ad space.  All that the average consumer will notice is the blu-ray signage.   

The only difference now is that Best Buy has said they will be "recommending" Blu-Ray.  That may or may not be a big deal, but most people will not be affected by what a blue shirt tells them they should do.  They either know what it is going in, or they'll buy the Blu-Ray player pushed on them by the blue shirt and think that all of their DVDs are magically high def now.

You are probably in the top 1% of educated consumers.   Does the average consumer really give a shit?   All they care about is that it's cheap and affordable and isn't going to be obsolete in two years.    As far as people 'not being affected by what a blue shirt tells them' then you must have missed the massive amount of Monster Cable that flows out of those stores.   

But the retailers do NO promoting of either format.  All of that is paid for by the studios and manufacturers. 

Again splitting hairs.  The knowledge of who is actually paying for the adverts is a non-issue to 99% of consumers.

I think is admirable that you're hanging on to the format but it's like the people in the HD-DVD camp who put out a press release saying Universal Studio still believes in the format.   Well great for Universal but when you're hanging on to those that are still hanging on then your camp is definitely on the downward spiral.    The longer that companies like Universal and Microsoft hang on to the format all they will do is piss of their customers with forcing them into what will be a small niche.     

If Microsoft offered a blu-ray player for the 360 would you not jump on it immediately?   Maybe there was a greater reason why Microsoft didn't include the HD-DVD player internally instead of as an external drive.

[John Kelly]

The only difference now is that Best Buy has said they will be "recommending" Blu-Ray.  That may or may not be a big deal, but most people will not be affected by what a blue shirt tells them they should do.  They either know what it is going in, or they'll buy the Blu-Ray player pushed on them by the blue shirt and think that all of their DVDs are magically high def now.

You are probably in the top 1% of educated consumers.   Does the average consumer really give a shit?   All they care about is that it's cheap and affordable and isn't going to be obsolete in two years.    As far as people 'not being affected by what a blue shirt tells them' then you must have missed the massive amount of Monster Cable that flows out of those stores.   

That's what I'm saying - they're either educated about the product and the blue shirt won't affect their decision, or they're completely oblivious to the whole thing and will think that their new HD player only plays in HD - meaning all of their SD DVDs are HD now.  It's already happened - people think that "HD Upscaling" DVD players output their movies in high definition, and we know that isn't really the case.

But the retailers do NO promoting of either format.  All of that is paid for by the studios and manufacturers. 

Again splitting hairs.  The knowledge of who is actually paying for the adverts is a non-issue to 99% of consumers.

I think is admirable that you're hanging on to the format but it's like the people in the HD-DVD camp who put out a press release saying Universal Studio still believes in the format.   Well great for Universal but when you're hanging on to those that are still hanging on then your camp is definitely on the downward spiral.    The longer that companies like Universal and Microsoft hang on to the format all they will do is piss of their customers with forcing them into what will be a small niche.     

If Microsoft offered a blu-ray player for the 360 would you not jump on it immediately?   Maybe there was a greater reason why Microsoft didn't include the HD-DVD player internally instead of as an external drive.

I'm not hanging on to any format.  I'm technically format neutral, but I have decided to stop buying any more HD media.  I've got an AppleTV and I think downloading will be the wave of the future.  I just think that comparatively the Netflix news is much worse, since they have announced an actual phasing out of the format.  Best Buy is going to continue to stock and sell the format, so as long as Toshiba and Universal keep buying ad space the impact should be minimal there. 

And no, I wouldn't jump all over a Microsoft Blu-Ray player - I have a PS3.  I try to buy as little of Microsoft's products as possible (although they do have me pretty hooked with their gaming platform right now).

[OFOTD]

That's what I'm saying - they're either educated about the product and the blue shirt won't affect their decision, or they're completely oblivious to the whole thing and will think that their new HD player only plays in HD - meaning all of their SD DVDs are HD now.  It's already happened - people think that "HD Upscaling" DVD players output their movies in high definition, and we know that isn't really the case.

We're on the same line of thinking for sure.   I read somewhere recently that something like30% of HD tv owners think that they're watching true HD when running a SD signal.  So again you and I being in the top 1% of educated gadget freaks can be frustrating.

I'm not hanging on to any format.  I'm technically format neutral, but I have decided to stop buying any more HD media.  I've got an AppleTV and I think downloading will be the wave of the future.  I just think that comparatively the Netflix news is much worse, since they have announced an actual phasing out of the format.  Best Buy is going to continue to stock and sell the format, so as long as Toshiba and Universal keep buying ad space the impact should be minimal there. 

See I think just the opposite.  Best Buy has effectively said that they're stocking the HDDVD buy not promoting it.  Essentially that the ad space will be taken completely over in favor of blu-ray.  Sony and the others will surely make up for any ad deficit that they would be losing by not accepting the Toshiba/Universal ads.    Best Buy along with others don't want a customer to walk into a store and have to decide on which format.  They (retailers) want there to be only one decision.  And at least at Best Buy stores that means BluRay.  Watch as the Toshiba/Universal ads dwindle from Best Buys and the like.   Those guys don't want to have to double their shelf space for two formats of a product that they make their absolute smallest margins if any on.   For many years Best Buy was losing money on DVD and CD sales because they used those low prices to drive traffic.

What is the true volume of rentals of NetFlix when compared to actual sales of the the same titles?   They run on slim margins in a cut throat business.  They more than anyone in the rental business is overjoyed that a format has been pretty well determined for mass consumption. 

The volume of sales to rentals greatly favors the Best Buys and Wal Marts of the world over NetFlix, Blockbuster or any available download service. 

And no, I wouldn't jump all over a Microsoft Blu-Ray player - I have a PS3.  I try to buy as little of Microsoft's products as possible (although they do have me pretty hooked with their gaming platform right now).

Okay to phrase it a different way.  If you didn't have a PS3 currently would you buy a BluRay from Microsoft if the 360 supported it?   


Oh and downloading services.  With the exception of stuff off of torrent sites I can't see things taking off for at least 5-10 years.  I mean who is going to want to rent or purchase a downloadable movie in BluRay/hi-def format if it takes them four days to grab it?   It not that the tech isn't there its that the consumer bandwidth isn't.   FIOS is a possible solution but its such a tiny small drop in the bucket so far.

[John Kelly]

See I think just the opposite.  Best Buy has effectively said that they're stocking the HDDVD buy not promoting it.  Essentially that the ad space will be taken completely over in favor of blu-ray.  Sony and the others will surely make up for any ad deficit that they would be losing by not accepting the Toshiba/Universal ads.    Best Buy along with others don't want a customer to walk into a store and have to decide on which format.  They (retailers) want there to be only one decision.  And at least at Best Buy stores that means BluRay.  Watch as the Toshiba/Universal ads dwindle from Best Buys and the like.   Those guys don't want to have to double their shelf space for two formats of a product that they make their absolute smallest margins if any on.   For many years Best Buy was losing money on DVD and CD sales because they used those low prices to drive traffic.

I guess we're reading the same thing differently.  I just think it means they'll have their staff recommend Blu-Ray when selling an HDTV. 

What is the true volume of rentals of NetFlix when compared to actual sales of the the same titles?   They run on slim margins in a cut throat business.  They more than anyone in the rental business is overjoyed that a format has been pretty well determined for mass consumption. 

The volume of sales to rentals greatly favors the Best Buys and Wal Marts of the world over NetFlix, Blockbuster or any available download service. 

On a bottom line basis I agree, losing retailers is MUCH worse than losing rental companies.  But I was just speaking to the news we had - Netflix is actually getting rid of HD DVD, while Best Buy is not.  To me that makes the Netflix news worse.

Okay to phrase it a different way.  If you didn't have a PS3 currently would you buy a BluRay from Microsoft if the 360 supported it?

Nope.  I'm not too interested in HD media right now.  Maybe once the price drops to DVD levels.  But I've decided to wait it out for a little while. 

Also I'm not too interested in add-on players.  I passed over the HD DVD add-on and purchased a Toshiba A2 last year.

Oh and downloading services.  With the exception of stuff off of torrent sites I can't see things taking off for at least 5-10 years.  I mean who is going to want to rent or purchase a downloadable movie in BluRay/hi-def format if it takes them four days to grab it?   It not that the tech isn't there its that the consumer bandwidth isn't.   FIOS is a possible solution but its such a tiny small drop in the bucket so far.

I can download from the XBL Marketplace and be watching the HD videos in minutes (it downloads the rest as I'm watching).  AppleTV should be the same.  And I just have a standard cable connection - not a "premium" or increased bandwidth service.  I do plan on switching to FIOS as soon as they're done installing it in my neighborhood, but the bandwidth is there now. 

The bonus for me is being able to watch it exactly when I want, and not having to wait for a disc to come in or head to the store.  I actually rented a movie from Blockbuster this weekend with a friend and remember how much I hate doing that.  The one movie we actually wanted to see was out of stock - don't have that problem with downloads...

The problem will come in if companies like Time Warner and others actually implement their tiered pricing structure.  That is the only thing that will slow down HD downloads IMO.

[macdaddy]

I have a PS3. 

whaaaaaaaaaaat..? i thought you would never give in...

i have a few games i never play (cod4 and the nija sigma gaiden game) - if you want i will send 'em over to ya.

+t for the ps3 - that had to hurt

i think m$ wants both formats to fail so downloading becomes the preferred method of distro, but i dont see that happening...

and what is up with the apple tv only doing 720p..? what's the point of that, and how does that compete with bluray (or hddvd for that matter)..?

[John Kelly]

Yeah the only game I have is God of War - the original for PS2 that I never played.  Really bought it for gaming, but wanted to get the 60 gig while I still could due to backwards compatibility because I missed a lot of great PS2 games.  I do have CoD4 for 360, but may have to take you up on the Ninja Gaiden offer.

And AppleTV is doing 720p due to bandwidth.  No way we'll have downloadable 1080p videos anytime soon.  The increase in bandwidth is HUGE.

[OFOTD]

Now Wal-Mart has abandoned HD-DVD.  No discs, no players.


http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9873029-7.html?tag=nefd.top



February 15, 2008 7:31 AM PST
Wal-Mart puts stake through HD DVD's heart

Things have gone from bad to worse for HD DVD in the space of one week.

Wal-Mart Stores announced on Friday morning that it, too, has chosen a side in the battle for high-definition video supremacy: by June, it will stock only Blu-ray Disc players.
(Credit: Crave UK)

A buyer in Wal-Mart's video division wrote this morning on her Wal-Mart Checkout blog that the retail giant had made the decision following Netflix and Best Buy's high-profile announcements that they will exclusively stock Blu-ray products.

Wrote Susan Chronister of Wal-Mart: "By June, Wal-Mart will only be carrying Blu-ray movies and hardware machines and, of course, standard-def movies, DVD players, and up-convert players."

"So," she continues, not mincing words, "if you bought the HD (DVD) player like me, I'd retire it to the bedroom, kid's playroom, or give it to your parents to play their John Wayne standard-def movies, and make space for a (Blu-Ray Disc) player."

That might be the best option at this point, as the dominoes keep falling in Blu-ray's favor. While Netflix and Best Buy were pretty damning evidence that the end was near, now it's glaringly obvious: it's over for HD DVD.

Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that consumers will automatically start buying Blu-ray players. As mentioned many times before here, prices will have to continue to fall on both Blu-ray players and packaged media for there to be any sort of mainstream adoption of the format.

There are rumors that Toshiba might soon be declaring defeat: The Hollywood Reporter has sources telling it that Toshiba, the main backer of HD DVD, might drop its allegiance with the format in the next few weeks.

Toshiba denies it, but stay tuned. There's likely much more to come in this drama.

[John Kelly]

Now THAT is the worst news HD DVD could get.  By far.

[spreadheadtom]

Now THAT is the worst news HD DVD could get.  By far.

QFT


I had gotten an e-mail from Amazon.com about HD DVD's on sale at 50% off.



I still need to dump some HD movies if anyone is interested