Topic: The death of HD DVD?

[OFOTD]

that's what i said above (re: m$), but i think it is a long way off. the masses have to have broadband for that to work, and they dont yet. and i am not sure if dsl can even handle what they are talking about...

You'd be surprised - over 60% of homes in the US now connect to the internet via broadband.  I think it's a lot closer than people think.

True but when the majority of those are using some form of DSL therein lies the problem.  People have access to high speed but what is high speed nowadays.  160KB down isn't going to get it done and i'd be shocked if the average person was willing to wait for days to get a single HD movie.   

To put the article/interview in perspective to this site.  How many of you are willing to have an offsite backup of your masters on a flash drive instead of a physical piece of media?   

Personally i'm happy that one of the two camps has finally had its back broken.  Didn't really care which one as long as there was one.   Now hopefully we have a format that will last 10 years before the newest format/idea comes to fruition. 

[Belexes]

The 40gb PS3 will NOT play PS2 games...only the 80GB will.


the reason I know this......I just took my HD DVD player and exchanged for the 40GB PS3.


edit:  now do I hold on to these HD DVD movies I have and pick up a dual format player when they get cheap(er)...or just sell them off.  I have about 10 movies.

i have the 60 gig one, and it plays ps2 games, but i have never tried...

congrats on your new purchase.

+T

Well that's extortion, but the price difference between the 40 gig and the 80 gig is just $100, so I guess that's not all that bad.  Looks like the 60 gig was discontinued. I figure if I jump to Blu-Ray I might as well get a compatible game console to boot.  Then I can join Team Rock Band. (no Rock Band for the PS2)

[John Kelly]

I actually really like the thinking of the Samsung Executive VP:

We scored a sitdown with DongSoo Jun, Executive VP and General Manager of Samsung's Digital AV Division. Translation: He's Samsung's main man on Blu-ray and HD DVD. We asked him the big question: "Is HD DVD dead ?" His answer might surprise you.

On the Hollywood front, he believes that the Warner announcement was a tipping point. In short, Blu-ray will win. But! HD DVD doesn't have to slink into a grave next to Betamax yet. It will become the chosen format for "private" (that is, personal) content because the format—ahem, Toshiba and Microsoft—has a stronghold in the PC drive market. He expects Toshiba to really concentrate on the PC HD DVD market since it's deader than disco if it loses there.

The format war ends. The "divide" begins. And it'll be even bigger, in a sense.

Upswing: Samsung's going to be keep pumping out dual-format players, so that people can easily watch the personal stuff and the Hollywood stuff on the same deck. "Most people...don't care about what format is most popular," says Jun.

He also thinks:
•: $299 is the magic price for Blu-ray players—watch around June/July
• 1,000 titles is the magic content number (Blu-ray is around 500 now)
• Digital distribution will kill standard-def physical media, not HD—people delete recorded SD content; they want to keep "high quality" content through Blu-ray

A lot of that makes sense, and since HD DVDs can be burned with burners people already have onto discs they already use, this is a lot more believable than most people probably think.

[macdaddy]

agreed.

but for commercial content, i believe the end is near for hd-dvd...

[willndmb]

How many "death blows" will it take for Blu-ray to finally win the format war against HD DVD? I've been hearing that phrase (and writing about it) since July 2007. Well here comes another one. Following in the footsteps of Warner Brothers' abandonment of the HD DVD format, reports are surfacing that Paramount is headed to Blu-ray as well.

This is huge news not just because it would leave just one major studio (Universal, plus the mini-major DreamWorks) producing HD DVD content. It would mark the first time in the high-def war that a studio has abandoned one exclusive format and switched to another. Warner was producing both HD DVD and Blu-ray discs and merely dropped the HD DVD ones. Paramount will have to switch entirely to Blu-ray, which it has not been producing up to now.

According to the Financial Times, Paramount has a clause in its contract with the HD DVD camp allowing it to switch to Blu-ray in the event that Warner was to do so. And exercising that clause is what's about to happen. It's also theorized that DreamWorks will follow Paramount, since the studios are closely tied together.

Nothing's been announced yet, but this should be wrapped up in fairly short order. Stay tuned.

ouch.

Paramount has already said that is false and that they will be supporting HD DVD (I'm guessing that will be their story until their contract is up).

http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/64393
who knows for sure

[John Kelly]

How many "death blows" will it take for Blu-ray to finally win the format war against HD DVD? I've been hearing that phrase (and writing about it) since July 2007. Well here comes another one. Following in the footsteps of Warner Brothers' abandonment of the HD DVD format, reports are surfacing that Paramount is headed to Blu-ray as well.

This is huge news not just because it would leave just one major studio (Universal, plus the mini-major DreamWorks) producing HD DVD content. It would mark the first time in the high-def war that a studio has abandoned one exclusive format and switched to another. Warner was producing both HD DVD and Blu-ray discs and merely dropped the HD DVD ones. Paramount will have to switch entirely to Blu-ray, which it has not been producing up to now.

According to the Financial Times, Paramount has a clause in its contract with the HD DVD camp allowing it to switch to Blu-ray in the event that Warner was to do so. And exercising that clause is what's about to happen. It's also theorized that DreamWorks will follow Paramount, since the studios are closely tied together.

Nothing's been announced yet, but this should be wrapped up in fairly short order. Stay tuned.

ouch.

Paramount has already said that is false and that they will be supporting HD DVD (I'm guessing that will be their story until their contract is up).

http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/64393
who knows for sure

I think Paramount does, when they came out and flat denied it.  Posting it again doesn't make it any more true.
Paramount/DreamWorks: "Still Supporting HD DVD" [UPDATED]

[-sam]

(no Rock Band for the PS2)

Untrue, it does exist, and shipped last month, just in a highly gimped form -- no downloadable content or online play I believe.

i was toying with getting an HD-DVD player because the price point is low(er) and there are quite a few movies I'd like to own in that format.  For now though waiting on cheaper, better dual-format players seems to remain the prudent choice.

[macdaddy]

re: that out clause that paramount has

i believe you, john (and i read your link), but in this morning's paper (latimes) that clause was specifically mentioned, and it was stated that the company is mulling over using it. the reason i bring this up, is that if there is one paper that essentially ALL company execs read daily, it is the la times (so i assume they have their facts straight)...

good to know they are optimistic about retailer support  maybe the format is actually poised to go the way of the dodo...

HD DVD camp stands by format
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Toshiba says backers haven't wavered despite Warner Bros.' choice of Blu-ray. But Paramount may be reconsidering.
By Dawn C. Chmielewski and Claudia Eller, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
January 9, 2008
LAS VEGAS -- Had pundits bet on the HD DVD camp folding its hand in Las Vegas, they would have lost their shirts.

None of the corporate giants that back the next-generation DVD format have jumped ship at the Consumer Electronics Show here. But the huge momentum shift toward the Blu-ray format has at least one studio strongly considering a switch.
 
Warner Bros.' decision last week to start making movies exclusively for Blu-ray players, rather than HD DVD, triggered an "out" clause in Paramount Pictures' contract with the HD DVD camp. An industry source said there was a significant possibility that Paramount would exercise that clause. It plans to decide within a month.

Paramount officials said they would continue to support HD DVD, a format for displaying videos in higher quality whose backers include Toshiba Corp. and Microsoft Corp. Universal Pictures, which has been a strong supporter from the beginning, issued no public statement on the matter here.

Toshiba said Tuesday that retailers have expressed their commitment to HD DVD during private meetings at the show, which is the world's largest consumer tech gathering.

Still, the Warner Bros. move -- announced just before the show began -- dramatically changed the balance of power in the competition to set the new DVD standard.

The Blu-ray contingent, led by Sony Corp., all but claimed victory before a standing-room-only presentation Monday, saying: "The Future Is Blu."

The Blu-ray Disc Assn. claimed a significant edge over HD DVD, with 85% of all next-generation players purchased since Blu-ray hit the market late in 2006. The group also said 66% of all high-definition movies sold in 2007 were Blu-ray.

Danny Kaye, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's executive vice president of technology strategy, predicted that Blu-ray players -- including Sony PlayStation 3 game consoles, which also play movies in the format -- would jump from 3.5 million sold by the end of 2007 to 10 million by the end of this year. He forecast a similar surge in movie sales, from $170 million to $1 billion in consumer spending.

Kaye said 2008 would be "a year of very strong, explosive growth."

Steve Beeks, president of Blu-ray supporter Lions Gate, said that after two years of "wasted energy" devoted to the bruising format war, the industry could begin to focus its efforts on expanding the home entertainment market.

"We believe 2008 will be a watershed year for Blu-ray's ascent in the marketplace," Beeks said.

That enthusiasm appears to be shared by the show's attendees, who flocked to the numerous Blu-ray displays on the show floor. The numbers were noticeably thinner at similar HD DVD displays.

Jodi Sally, vice president of marketing for Toshiba America's digital audio video group, emphasized the continued retail support for its HD DVD format, which has sold more 1 million players since its introduction.

"I've been here for two days of back-to-back meetings with retailers," Sally said. "We are really encouraged by our meetings and the response of retailers that they will continue to offer consumers a choice."

Industry executives said it would be unusual for retailers to abandon any format so soon after Christmas, for fear of sparking a flood of returns.

[John Kelly]

re: that out clause that paramount has

i believe you, john (and i read your link), but in this morning's paper (latimes) that clause was specifically mentioned, and it was stated that the company is mulling over using it. the reason i bring this up, is that if there is one paper that essentially ALL company execs read daily, it is the la times (so i assume they have their facts straight)...

good to know they are optimistic about retailer support  maybe the format is actually poised to go the way of the dodo...

Yeah but they're talking about the same source that everyone else is - the Financial Times.  Unless someone can produce a copy of said contract showing that clause, I just find it way too hard to believe.  It is just an odd thing to put into a contract in the first place.  Having an "out" clause makes sense - but basing that out clause on a third party and their actions makes little sense (especially to the HD DVD forum side of the contract).

Plus, if that clause were in there I'd suspect we'd have seen Paramount at *least* go back to neutral already, or at least make an announcement that they were doing so.

[macdaddy]

i hear ya...

and nicke finke, who is normally QUITE trustworthy when it comes to the industry and the stuff she writes, says the "out clause" is b$, too...

link

[olyrc]

I think this is still a wait & see game.  I also think the Seagate guy is right, the hard drive will win out in the end.  As far as the physical formats go, I've got both.  I got the HD drive for the XBox 360 because it was cheap and updates are easy over XBox Live.  I got a PS3 because I thought the games would be great and I was happy it was backward compatible (I got the 60gb shortly after they came out).  I'm really disappointed in the games for the PS3.  Really it has become just a blu-ray player for me.  Of the two I'd say I prefer HD-DVD by just a hair over blu-ray, but in the end I really don't care - they both look fantastic and if a movie isn't available on one, I'll get it for the other.  I don't understand the heated, verbal-diarrhea arguments that go on over which is better.  Nothing is that important.  (of course there's always the "my DPA can kick your Schoeps ass" arguments, and vice-versa, which I have more interest in, even though I've downgraded to ATs)

[OFOTD]

Just a little more fuel for the fire.


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117978760.html


Blu-ray could win high-def battle
HD DVD backers could switch sides soon
By DIANE GARRETT, BEN FRITZ

The two remaining studios backing HD DVD could switch sides soon, ending the high-def format war instantly.

Daily Variety has confirmed that Universal's commitment to backing HD DVD exclusively has ended. And Paramount has an escape clause in its HD DVD contract allowing it to release pics on Blu-ray after Warner Bros.' decision to back that format exclusively.

Neither studio is ready to throw in the towel immediately, however. Universal is committed to a series of promotions for the high-def format in coming months, and Par has said its current plans are to keep supporting HD DVD, which it backed exclusively in August.

Should Toshiba concede defeat on the format, the decision to drop HD DVD would be made for both studios. But Toshiba doesn't appear ready to do that. At the Consumer Electronics Show, the manufacturer reaffirmed its commitment to the format, noting strong sales during the fourth quarter and indicating it would continue marketing its hardware through 2008.

But retailers may force the HD DVD camp's hand: They're unlikely to keep devoting premium shelf space to a dying format, and at this point, the odds are not in HD DVD's favor. With Warners' defection, only Par and U remain in the HD DVD camp; Sony, Disney, Fox, Lionsgate remain ardent Blu-ray backers. Warner sister companies New Line and HBO are also shifting allegiance to Blu-ray.

Last summer, Blockbuster also threw its weight behind Blu-ray, though some HD DVD discs remain in stores.

And Warner will continue to release HD DVD discs for the next few months to honor its previous commitment to Toshiba, which extends through May 31. Paramount's HD DVD deal, which covers DreamWorks releases, was to run through this year.

[John Kelly]

The only problem I have with that article is that there were some recent interviews with Retail Executives (from Target, Best Buy, and I believe Circuit City) that said they would not be decreasing the amount of shelf space dedicated to HD DVD.

There's just too much unsubstantiated crap being flung these days.  Right now it appears as though BD will emerge victorious, but it's going to take some time.  This wont be over next week, as some of these articles like to predict.

[willndmb]

here is what i would like to know
rather hd or bluray wins out - will companies go back and release the movie in the winning format?
for example will the bourne movies be released in bluray if it wins out
otherwise i think the dual format player will "win"

[OFOTD]

The only problem I have with that article is that there were some recent interviews with Retail Executives (from Target, Best Buy, and I believe Circuit City) that said they would not be decreasing the amount of shelf space dedicated to HD DVD.

I've read similar interviews from those retail execs.  One thing to keep in mind about those retailers especially in the case of CC and Best Buy is that their margins on CD's and DVD's are almost non-existent.   These stores use CD's and DVD's to drive traffic to to the store in general as well as towards higher margin items.   Several years ago (5+) a former colleague went to work for Best Buy up in Minnesota and he told us that typically they'll lose money on disc sales but that it drives store sales for other items. 

At Walmart most stores have a larger area for book and magazine sale than they do for discs.  Add to the fact that these retailers would never admit to one format or the other as they don't want to alienate even one potential customer.  This summer will probably end up being the deciding factor for the formats when it appears that that is when most of the studios will phase out HD-DVD.